On to the Goal

Photo via The Oklahoma Daily

During the 2008 season, I never thought of the Florida Gators as “dominant.” I’m guessing I was just too wounded from the Ole Miss loss to think clearly, but for whatever reason, I kept thinking about a 9-3 fourth quarter lead over a feckless Miami team or Shay Hodge sneaking behind Major Wright and OHGODNO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Then the 30-point wins started piling up. There was the fourth quarter comeback against Alabama and holding Oklahoma to 14 points. When the dust settled and I looked at the numbers, I had to wonder: What the hell I was thinking?!?!?

The turning point came when I read the Birds & Braves statistical breakdown of the 10 BCS champions. Florida’s 2008 offense averaged 2.67 yards more per play than its defense surrendered, which is really just obscene, quite frankly. Among the BCS champions, only 2005 Texas (2.68) was better, and 2001 Miami (2.61) was the only other team in the same galaxy. (Even 2005 runner-up USC weighed in at a mere 2.3.) According to Jeff Sagarin’s strength-of-schedule rankings, Florida accomplished that feat against the fourth-toughest schedule in the nation, a much better slate than the ones that Texas (13) and Miami (27) faced.

“Although few will make the case that 2008 Florida is one of the great teams of recent history because they lost a home game to Ole Miss, the yardage numbers put the Gators in elite company. Florida had the best offense of any national champion this decade, a defense that would stack up with most, and they played a very difficult schedule.”

So why was I so off-base during the season? Well, human nature, for one. But I think I have at least a part of a real answer, and it’s relevant to the discussion of how good the 2009 team can be.

For as good as the Gator defense was, a few teams did manage to have some success against it. Georgia racked up close to 400 yards of total offense, Alabama man-handled the front seven for the middle two quarters and Oklahoma answered each of the Gators first two touchdowns with frighteningly efficient blitzkrieg scores.

Yet just four opponents cracked the 20-point mark, and only Ole Miss (Ugh. Them.) scored more than 21. Why? Red-zone defense.

Percentage-wise, Florida had the third-best red-zone defense in the nation last year and was one of just three teams to surrender a score on fewer than 70 percent of its opponents red-zone possessions (69.23). In 39 tries, Gator opponents scored a touchdown less than half the time (18) and made nine field goals. On 12 occasions walked away with nothing. Sometimes in memorable fashion:

Now, success like that isn’t a huge shock given how good the defense was overall (fourth nationally in scoring defense, ninth in total defense), but even among the elite defenses, Florida more than held its own:

Note: For simplicity sake, I counted all touchdowns as 7 points, irrespective of the outcome of the try.

Florida actually let teams into the red-zone more times (39) than any other team on that list, but it allowed fewer points per possession than all but Tennessee. Opposing teams were more likely to walk away with three or zero points than they were with a touchdown. (Fortunately, the Gators allowed just three touchdowns of 20 yards or longer – a meaningless score with a 42-point lead against Citadel and two big plays against Ole Miss. Yes. Them. Again.)

So was the 2008 defense great, or merely very good with a bit of luck in the red-zone? Well, neither. Florida’s 2008 stop unit was excellent, but it probably doesn’t rank among the best defenses of all time or even of recent vintage for that matter. The Gators surrendered 3.35 yards per carry and tied for 23rd nationally in sacks with 33. Good, but not all-time good.

I don’t think there was a disproportionate amount of luck at work, either. Yes there was some CromptonFAIL sprinkled in, but based on the overall statistical strength of the defense, I think it’s fair to say that they were a very good unit that tightened up even more inside their own 20.

With the same cast returning almost entirely intact (Torrey Davis, we hardly knew ye), there’s no reason to think that the defense won’t be even better in 2009, even if the turnover margin (+22) or the red-zone defense comes down to Earth a bit. But who’s to say that even that will happen?